Who is favoured to win the 2026-27 NBA championship?

Oklahoma City Thunder lead the forecast at 39.3%, from 20,000 simulated seasons. San Antonio Spurs are second at 16.1%.

How often does the favourite actually win the title?

In this forecast the favourite still loses 60.7% of the time. Across 12 held-out seasons the model ranked the eventual champion 3.67 out of 16 on average, against 8.5 for a random guess.

Which conference is more likely to win the 2026-27 title?

The West takes it in 69.4% of simulations and the East in 30.6%.

Championship forecast · Act 1 of 12

Zero games have
been played

20,000

So every roster was projected forward and the whole season played out 20,000 times — regular season, bracket and all. What follows is a count of how those finished.

Championship forecast · Act 2 of 12

Oklahoma City Thunder · West

39.3%

Oklahoma City Thunder are the most likely champion

No team projects higher. San Antonio Spurs, second, sit at 16.1% — and the other 28 teams split 44.6% between them.

Projected wins

Net rating

+7.9

90% win range

50–73

Takes the 1 seed

45.6%

Championship forecast · Act 3 of 12

And still loses
six times in ten

7,862 of 20,000 simulated seasons end with Oklahoma City Thunder holding the trophy. The other 12,138 do not. That is the forecast, not a flaw in it.

Championship forecast · Act 4 of 12

OKC and SAS take it in 55.4% of seasons. Then it gets crowded

San Antonio SpursW16.1%

Denver NuggetsW8.7%

Detroit PistonsE5.8%

New York KnicksE5.5%

Boston CelticsE5.2%

Toronto RaptorsE4.2%

Cleveland CavaliersE3.9%

Ranks 4 to 8 sit inside 1.9 percentage points of each other. Read them as one group — the gap from top to bottom of that block is smaller than what the model gets wrong in an ordinary season.

Championship forecast · Act 5 of 12

The title is a Western Conference story

West69.4%

East30.6%

Nearly seven titles in ten come out of the West — which is less about any one roster than about how many credible contenders sit on that side of the bracket.

Championship forecast · Act 6 of 12

They won anywhere from 30 to 82 games

One bar per win total, 20,000 seasons deep. The lit band is the range they landed in nine times out of ten.

30 winsmedian 6282 wins

Median

Middle half

57–67

90% range

50–73

Misses playoffs

0.4%

Championship forecast · Act 7 of 12

The ten most likely Finals

DET

OKC

8.8%

NYK

OKC

8.5%

BOS

OKC

7.8%

OKC

TOR

7.2%

CLE

OKC

6.0%

DET

SAS

4.2%

BOS

SAS

3.9%

NYK

SAS

3.9%

OKC

PHI

3.6%

SAS

TOR

3.0%

OKC are in all five of the top five, and SAS take over from there. That is what being this far ahead looks like on a bracket: not certainty, just presence in every branch.

Championship forecast · Act 8 of 12

24 different teams won it at least once

OKC39.3%

SAS16.1%

DEN8.7%

DET5.8%

NYK5.5%

BOS5.2%

TOR4.2%

CLE3.9%

HOU2.5%

PHI1.8%

CHA1.2%

ATL1.2%

ORL1.1%

MIN0.9%

GSW0.6%

LAL0.5%

POR0.5%

MIA0.4%

IND0.2%

PHX0.2%

BKN0.0%

UTA0.0%

NOP0.0%

MEM0.0%

CHInever

LACnever

MILnever

SACnever

DALnever

WASnever

Run the season enough times and most of the league wins it once. These 6 never did, not in 20,000 tries: CHI, LAC, MIL, SAC, DAL, WAS.

Championship forecast · Act 9 of 12

It ranked the real champion 3.67 of 16, not 1

One bar per season the model never saw. Taller means it had the eventual champion higher; the number on top is where it actually ranked them.

114-15

215-16

116-17

517-18

518-19

519-20

220-21

1121-22

422-23

123-24

124-25

625-26

Picked first

33%

In its top five

83%

Random guess

8.5

Worst miss

112021-22

Championship forecast · Act 10 of 12

It never predicts a champion.
It predicts one game, over and over

There is one champion a season, so there is almost nothing to learn from directly. There are tens of thousands of games. The model answers "who wins tonight", then plays the bracket 20,000 times and counts the trophies.

68.5%

It calls the right winner

On games it was never trained on. A coin gets 50%; just always picking the home team gets about 58%.

0.2009

How far off its percentages run

Called the Brier score. Lower is better: saying "50–50" to every game scores 0.25, and a perfect oracle scores 0.

0.7412

Can it tell which team is better?

Called AUC. Take a game the home team won and one they lost — this is how often the model gave the winner the higher chance. 0.5 is a coin, 1.0 is perfect.

2.75

How much a team can surprise you

In net rating points, over a season. Set to the one value where the forecast's "90% likely" win ranges really did contain the answer 90% of the time.

Championship forecast · Act 11 of 12

How it turned out

Sealed until the season ends

This forecast says Oklahoma City Thunder at 39.3%. Come back after June 2027 and this screen will say who actually won, and where the model had them.

Championship forecast · Act 12 of 12

Every team, every number

All 30 teams with championship, Finals, conference final and playoff probabilities, projected wins and net rating.
#	Team	Title	Finals	Conf. final	Playoffs	Wins	Net
1	Oklahoma City Thunder	39.3%	51.3%	72.9%	100%	62	+7.9
2	San Antonio Spurs	16.1%	23.9%	52.6%	99%	60.4	+7.11
3	Denver Nuggets	8.7%	13.6%	32.4%	93%	52.8	+4.13
4	Detroit Pistons	5.8%	17.3%	31.8%	91%	53	+4.6
5	New York Knicks	5.5%	16.5%	30.6%	89%	52.4	+4.32
6	Boston Celtics	5.2%	15.8%	29.4%	84%	50.5	+3.78
7	Toronto Raptors	4.2%	13.5%	25.7%	81%	49.5	+3.28
8	Cleveland Cavaliers	3.9%	12.0%	22.8%	74%	47.3	+2.69
9	Houston Rockets	2.5%	4.9%	15.0%	86%	49.1	+3.27
10	Philadelphia 76ers	1.8%	7.0%	14.8%	66%	45.5	+1.92
11	Charlotte Hornets	1.2%	4.8%	11.7%	70%	46.3	+2.06
12	Atlanta Hawks	1.2%	5.0%	11.7%	68%	46	+1.87
13	Orlando Magic	1.1%	4.8%	11.6%	68%	46	+2.03
14	Minnesota Timberwolves	0.9%	1.9%	7.8%	74%	45.6	+1.69
15	Golden State Warriors	0.6%	1.3%	5.8%	72%	45.1	+0.97
16	Los Angeles Lakers	0.5%	1.1%	4.6%	60%	42.2	+0.29
17	Portland Trail Blazers	0.5%	1.3%	5.2%	67%	43.6	+1.39
18	Miami Heat	0.4%	2.0%	5.5%	48%	41.6	+0.1
19	Indiana Pacers	0.2%	1.0%	2.7%	25%	36.6	-1.59
20	Phoenix Suns	0.2%	0.5%	2.3%	52%	40.5	-0.25
21	Brooklyn Nets	0.0%	0.3%	1.0%	17%	34	-2.27
22	Utah Jazz	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	16%	31.8	-3.12
23	New Orleans Pelicans	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	19%	32.9	-2.85
24	Memphis Grizzlies	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	28%	35.3	-1.98
25	Chicago Bulls	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	9%	31	-3.84
26	LA Clippers	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	15%	31.3	-3.41
27	Milwaukee Bucks	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4%	27.6	-5.11
28	Sacramento Kings	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5%	26.5	-5.53
29	Dallas Mavericks	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	14%	31.1	-3.63
30	Washington Wizards	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	5%	28.5	-4.56